Central Bank promises that the smooth depreciation of the ruble will not lead to a sharp rise in prices
Posted on Aug 1, 2012
The current devaluation could actually lead to increased inflationary pressures. Inflation in Russia in the fourth quarter could be around 2% of its weekly speaker in October will be at 0.1% in November and December – 0.2%, announced the first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev.
Inflation in Russia in January-September was 4.7%. “From my point of view, we have to keep some stock at a value of 7%, which is set for themselves”, – concluded the first deputy chairman.
In addition, Ulyukayev said that the Central Bank has made to the State Duma draft guidelines for monetary policy, which stipulates that inflation after 2014 should be reduced to 4-5% per year, which would change the funding model of economic development, “with a model that relied on global savings, a model based on the development of domestic savings and domestic investment in the transformation. ”
Analyst with the independent agency “Investkafe” Anton Safonov noted in
“Nezavisimaya Gazeta” that “about 40% of the inventory in the Russian retail trade generated by imports and the depreciation of the ruble leads to higher prices for these products.”
Following the imported products will be more expensive and domestic, that would speed up the overall inflation with further devaluation or maintain the current rate.
The weakness of the ruble is largely due to falling stocks and lower oil prices. However, the stabilization of the external background, coupled with currency interventions of the Central Bank will strengthen the ruble more, so a return to the level of 30 rubles to the dollars real. During September the Central Bank sold the currency of more than $ 8 billion, and the ruble began to gradually strengthen.
The government has already stated that the increase in utility tariffs in 2012, must not exceed 4.9%, which is very much lower the price increase in the next year, analysts said.
Although, of course, at the expense of a significant increase in gas tariff overall growth rates will be slightly ahead of inflation. Thus, the official inflation rate of 6% in the next year will be possible.
According to the general director of Penny Lane Realty George Dzagurov, prices are unlikely to happen, the cost of many goods at the moment is fair and justified. If fluctuations lead to higher prices, it is quite possible that some goods will be in demand.
CB October 5 is already out on the market and in order to contain the course has sold more than a billion dollars. It is likely that before the elections – both parliamentary and presidential – all measures will be aimed at curbing inflation and the exchange rate, the analyst said.