Demand for apartments in Moscow, half the supply
Posted on Jan 30, 2013
After a crazy two-year price growth stabilized Moscow apartments, and apartments on the secondary market for sale at a discount. According to realtors, sellers, has doubled than buyers. Some do not exclude that in the next year and the apartments may become cheaper.
Although in recent years in that metropolitan housing may become cheaper, could hardly believe: as fast as in 2006, the Moscow real estate is not expensive. Since the beginning of the year prices increased by 65%, the average price per square meter reached 3,953 dollars. Before that, the maximum increase in prices was recorded in 2003, when the apartments rose over the year by 40%. The rapid rise in prices of housing in the first half of this year, the experts explained deficit. “Gazette” claim that in January, for example, in the capital sold only 12,282 apartments.
- Reasons stabilization
- Ranking of the most expensive buildings in Moscow
- History of the apartment boom
- Resin: no collusion builders not, prices are rising because of newcomers
- The prospects of mortgage availability, but not cheaper
But then the situation is improving. By the summer, the number of offers for sale in the secondary market has been slowly growing, and housing price increase slowed to 6.5% in the month. Some experts have begun to talk about the first signs of price stabilization, but realtors write this off to the summer lull and offers traditional leap in September. Now we see that these expectations are not met. “The rise in prices has slowed, becoming more expensive apartment less than 1% per week (in April, the figure was 10%)”, – says the head of the analytical center irn.ru Oleg Repchenko. Market stopped, recognized “lists” to be named Capital realtor, sell the apartment becomes increasingly difficult.
The reasons for the stabilization
“For the first time last year, sales of apartments were more than customers – their ratio is 2:1. This is only the first step”, – said director of marketing for a real estate company “Agent 002″ Olga Pobedinskaya. Head of the analytical department of the corporation “Inkom-real estate” Alexander Matveev indicates that only in the past week in the secondary market increased by 7.7% to 25,329 apartments. “This is a significant increase, and a half months in the secondary market has grown by almost 19%,” – said Matveyev. In this case, excessive demand for housing is no more, he notes, from May demand is declining.
Both of these factors have led to the stabilization of prices in the secondary market. Buyers are beginning to trade and in some cases reduce the high price of the offer is inadequate, say realtors. The period for the exposure of apartments has doubled – from three weeks in the spring of 1.5-2 months in September.
Customer resources exhausted, and investors began to take profits – as experts explain the supposed onset stabilization. “Most of the apartments in the last year were bought for investment purposes, they are now the owners of record profits,” – said independent analyst Gennady Sternik estate. The newspaper “Hand in Hand” became increasingly flickering ads apartments “unfinished” in homes inhabited by a few years ago. Real estate as an investment tool looks overheated, prices will have to slow down.
Irn.ru predicts the price freeze at the end of the year. “Stabilization of the last until next spring – believes Gennady Sternik – and then a correction in prices down to 5-7% of the maximum level this year.” But realtors and developers are not concerned that their business will suffer. Even if demand from buyers with real money stops, it will extend the mortgage.
Story apartment boom
Since 2000, the unprecedented growth of the capital of the housing market has attracted billions of dollars in investments from across the country contributed to the strong competition among developers and consultant. This did not stop the rise in prices, says the “Business”.
The banking crisis in 2004 and adopted a serious delay law 214 “On participation in joint construction”, aimed at protecting consumers, provoked the reduction by half of new construction. This has led to a shortage of supply and a monthly price increase of 10-15% – the average price per square meter in the capital has almost reached four thousand dollars.
The beginning of the housing boom in 2000 – this is the time of which wistfully recall portfolio investors and most ordinary Muscovites: then one bedroom apartment cost 18-20 thousand dollars. If it had been acquired at the time, and realized today, its price would have 80-100 thousand. But six years ago for the average resident of the capital, these prices also seemed extremely high.
Only in late 2001 – early 2002, when the trend is to increase the cost of housing has become evident and well-being also went up, and the first who want to invest in real estate.
Later, the fact that the best investment – it is land and square footage, an axiom for the most active entrepreneurs. These investments earned them at least triple the capital.
Since mid-2002, in Moscow, began to develop a new understanding of the quality of housing. Still under construction economy class is not satisfied many Muscovites, which gave impetus to the development of monolithic housing, which gradually made room for the panel.
Major construction sites five years ago were Maryinsky Park, Southern and Northern Butovo, Lublin. Already by 2003, these areas were almost completely built up, leading to a transition to a monolithic identity construction.
This was the moment in the capital began infill development, and in 2004 the share of non-standard construction (monolith-brick) houses more than 50% and has a strong tendency to further increase. By 2008, the share of new construction of panel houses, according to experts, will be reduced to 30-35%.
With another round of reduction in supply of cheap housing in new buildings has significantly increased the pressure of demand on the secondary market. This was the case of apartments with low consumer characteristics, small common areas and the total price. This naturally led to a significant increase and decrease in this segment.
As a result of unrealized purchasing power continues to this day move in the near suburbs, both in the primary and secondary markets. This trend has led to an increase in housing prices in the suburbs, which on many sites over the rise in prices for apartments in Moscow. Then in came the biggest Moscow suburbs panel developers with a comprehensive software development areas.
The growth of prices is quite unpredictable. In 2000, the average price per square meter in the secondary housing market in Moscow is about $ 700. Apartment in the panel or monolithic house in the early stages of construction in South Butovo Maryinskiy park and then you can buy for only 370-400 dollars per square meter. m CAO already cost per square meter was more than a thousand dollars.
In 2001 and 2002, the annual increase in the average price was around 16-17%, which is slightly higher than the rate of inflation in the country and is quite consistent with the norms of a civilized market of real estate. But already in 2003 – 2004, the average annual growth rate of housing prices have nearly doubled to 32-39%.
Logical and objective explanation to step up in 2005 and continues to this day, the price spikes can not give, perhaps, no one professional analyst. “With full confidence we can say only one thing: a fundamental influence on the fantastic growth in prices has had a significant reduction (one-third) of the total supply of apartments,” – says the head of the analytical department of the corporation “Inkom-real estate” Alexander Matveyev.