Expert: national project “Affordable housing” crash in 4-5 years

Posted on Oct 12, 2012

National project “Affordable Housing”, even if in the first stage, it seems successful, would collapse in 4-5 years. This opinion was expressed in the pages of “Spark” professor of the Higher School of Economics Ivan Rodionov. The fact that the low-rise construction – not such a cheap project. Likely prove expensive houses for the middle class in a few years the land allocated for affordable “maloetazhke” will sell at commercial prices, he said.

“Low-rise construction does not cheaper apartment. For example, for a 5-storey building for 50 apartments to lay 500 meters of water pipes. And in order to provide water to 50 separate houses – one and a half kilometers. Costs increased three times. So it is with sewage, gas, telephone cables, electricity. Yes, in apartment buildings should be installed relatively expensive equipment, eg pumps that lift water to the top floor. But in order to supply water to a mile of pipes, is also required to pump, “- he says.

In addition, the low-rise building requires huge investments in social infrastructure. The same roads in the neighborhood of the cottages will have to build a lot more than in the area, built-up panel houses. So the cost of low-rise housing will definitely be higher than the cost of the panel.

Most of the sites close to the major cities were sold out already in the first 10 years of reform. So low-rise suburbs far and will have to build all the infrastructure to build there from scratch – from roads to schools and hospitals. Also suitable for the construction of land near cities is almost gone, and the authorities will have to be used for low-rise buildings of agricultural land, emphasizes Rodionov.

Further, according to him, the following happens: The state allocates land, build on it infrastructure, supply of communications. Then private companies begin to build the house, and it turns out that they are too expensive and no one is buying. As a result, the project of mass low-rise construction is stopped and the land, infrastructure, introduced in the market. Companies make good on her expensive homes and sell them at higher prices. On this you can earn tens of billions of dollars.

Before the program begins to fall, it may take 4 – 5 years, says economist. By this time the infrastructure is to be built, and the authorities will have to give the land for commercial development.

However, other experts disagree with Rodionov in assessing the cost of construction. So, Gennady Sternik, chief analyst of the Russian Guild of Realtors, said that low-rise houses can be very cheap. “If we abandon the architectural delights, facing brick cottage, the balconies, the house at cost and can therefore dispense cheaper apartment in a block of flats. Engineering infrastructure costs will be approximately the same as in the construction of apartment buildings. Moreover, the quality of these homes is high enough, as a “sandwich” holds heat better than brick. Dates same building is less than in the construction of apartment buildings: it is enough to build a foundation, and the assembly of the house takes about a week, “- he says.

However, Sternik agrees that “for new districts need their own social infrastructure, a different level of social services,” and this is the main problem.

As a result, the massive low-rise construction does not reduce prices. According to him, “they will grow another 10 – 15 years, in the same Moscow – by 20 – 25% per year. So housing, including low-rise, will be expensive.”